Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
